📰 Cold Open (Apr 9 2025) – The Fuse Is Lit
“Trump raises Chinese tariff to 125 %.”
Seconds later: 30‑yr U.S.‑Treasury futures drop 1 ¼ points; spot gold nudges higher.
Source: [AP headline, Apr 9 ’25]
Act I. China’s Quiet Treasury Sell‑Off
1. The Numbers No One Cheered
- Feb TIC report: Chinese holdings $784 bn → second‑lowest since 2009.
- Street chatter (Apr 9–16): policy banks dumped an extra $8–10 bn in long‑dated bonds.
- 30‑yr yield pierces 5 %, first time since 2007.
Sources: [U.S. Treasury TIC, Apr 10 ’25] · [Reuters Breakingviews, Apr 17 ’25]
2. Why the “Slow‑Bleed” Strategy?
| Risk Beijing sees | Why sell only a trickle? |
|---|---|
| Capital loss from rising U.S. yields | A sudden fire‑sale would crush its own book. |
| Weaponisation fears (Russia‑style freeze) | Gradual exit keeps headlines small. |
| Keeping the yuan weak | Dumping too fast would strengthen the RMB. |
Act II. Where the Cash Actually Went
Hint: the money never boarded a flight back to Shanghai.
- Euro‑dollar time deposits in Singapore & Cayman
- U.S. commercial‑paper funds (3‑month tenor)
- Commodity pre‑payment loans to copper & oil suppliers
| Motive | Benefit |
|---|---|
| Keep dollars liquid but off‑balance‑sheet | Won’t show in official FX reserves |
| Quietly support yuan via offshore “stealth” buy‑backs | No hit to on‑shore reserves |
| Secure raw materials amid tariff war | Locks‑in supply chain |
Source: [Bank for International Settlements quarterly, Q1 ’25]
Act III. From Bonds to Bullion
1. A Four‑Month Gold Shopping Spree
- Jan → Apr: PBoC adds ≈ 10 tonnes per month.
- Total stash now ≈ 2,290 t (~8 % of total reserves).
Source: [World Gold Council release, Mar 5 ’25]
2. Gold Blows Past $3,500 / oz (Apr 22)
“Safe‑haven rush fuels record metal price.”
Source: [Reuters Commodities News, Apr 22 ’25]
Why Gold, Not More Bonds?
- Sanction‑proof (metal in Shanghai vaults can’t be frozen)
- No duration risk (unlike a 30‑yr at 4 – 5 % yields)
- Domestic signal that PBoC has a hard‑asset back‑stop
Act IV. Trump × Powell: The D.C. Cage‑Match
<figure style=”margin:0″> <pre> Tariff hike → China trims Treasuries → Yields jump ↑ ↓ Trump blames Fed ← Fed holds rates (inflation fear) </pre> </figure>
- Tariffs light the fuse – Higher yields jeopardise Trump’s housing vote.
- Trump tweets “FIRE POWELL!” – markets price political risk.
- Fed stands pat – credibility at stake; dollar softens, gold soars.
Sources: [Trump social posts, Apr 10–18] · [FOMC minutes, Apr 17]
Act V. Possible Next Chapters
| Scenario | Odds | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Drip‑drip continues | ★★★★☆ | 30‑yr > 5 % without new QE |
| Flash dump (>$100 bn) | ★☆☆☆☆ | Overnight repo panic |
| Tariff détente | ★★☆☆☆ | Rally speech hinting at “off‑ramp” |
| Powell ousted | ? | Senate hearings; gold → $4 k |
🎬 Take‑Aways for Readers & Investors
- Pace matters – Beijing bleeds, never floods.
- Watch gold vs. 30‑yr spread – the new fear gauge (‑0.82 corr YTD).
- Politics prices bonds now – ignore D.C. drama at your peril.
Further Reading / References
| # | 출처 | 제목 / 설명 | 게재 일자 | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AP News | Trump limits tariffs on most nations for 90 days, raises China import tax to 125% | 2025-04-09 | https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-stock-market-china-recession-deals-e8e54a68397e6829e1d27552a1d7bfb9 |
| 2 | Reuters Breakingviews | Tariff chaos leaves its mark on US debt costs | 2025-04-14 | https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/tariff-chaos-leaves-its-mark-us-debt-costs-2025-04-14/ |
| 3 | 미 재무부 TIC | Treasury International Capital Data — February 2025 보도자료 | 2025-04-10 | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0091 |
| 4 | World Gold Council | China’s gold market update: Investment boom continues in March | 2025-04-14 | https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/04/chinas-gold-market-update-investment-boom-continues-march |
| 5 | Reuters (비디오) | Gold hits key $3,500 mark as Trump’s attacks on Fed chief rattle traders | 2025-04-22 | https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW826222042025RP1/ |
| 6 | 연방준비제도(Fed) | Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee — March 18-19 2025 (공개 일자) | 2025-04-09 | https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250319.htm |
