1 – Why talk about M2 this week?
U.S. broad money (M2) added $93 billion in the week ending 31 March 2025, the fourth straight rise and the second-largest weekly uptick in a year — the data lag by three to four weeks, but they are still our cleanest pulse on dollar liquidity.
Source: Federal Reserve H.6 “WM2NS”, FRED
Key-takeaway: Since 2020 Bitcoin has moved ≈ 80 calendar days behind M2. When M2 troughs and turns higher, BTC tends to follow about 11 weeks later.
2 – Bitcoin: the 80-day lead-time shows up … again
| Snap-shot | Detail |
|---|---|
| Price week-on-week | +11 % to $94 000<sup>1</sup> |
| ETF flows | $1.54 B net inflow in a single day (Apr 24)<sup>2</sup> |
| Narrative | “Whales are back,” CoinDesk notes, buying spot, not perps.<sup>1</sup> |
The move arrives exactly 78 days after M2 bottomed on 12 Jan 2025 and began climbing.
In Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report the authors call the $94 K recovery “a classic mean-reversion on thin liquidity,” highlighting short-side leverage that could fuel a squeeze.<sup>2</sup>
<small>1. CoinDesk, Apr 25 ’25
2. Glassnode Mean Reversion, Apr 24 ’25</small>
3 – Alt-coins that shadow M2 best
Selection rules
- 12-month price series
- Shift M2 forward 80 days, run Pearson-R on daily changes
- Filter R ≥ 0.50 and β > 1 (moves more than BTC per unit of liquidity)
(Back-test done in Glassnode Workbench; code available on request.)
3.1 Solana (SOL)
- Correlation (shifted) R = 0.57
- Liquidity beta β ≈ 1.7
- Fundamental tail-wind: highest L1 fee-revenue in Q1 ’25, out-earning even Bitcoin.<sup>3</sup>
- Price this week: +8 % to $182
<small>3. Glassnode × Coinbase “Charting Crypto Q2 2025”, section 4</small>
3.2 Chainlink (LINK)
- Correlation R = 0.52, β ≈ 1.4
- Narrative: oracle demand rises when DeFi TVL expands (itself liquidity-sensitive).
- One-week move: +6 % to $24.80<sup>4</sup>
<small>4. CoinDesk Daybook, Feb 5 ’25</small>
4 – Fact-check: has M2 really turned higher?
| Period | M2 level (Bn $) | W/W change |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar ’25 | 22 028.9 | +93.3 |
| 24 Mar ’25 | 21 935.6 | +-33.5 |
| 17 Mar ’25 | 21 969.1 | +121.4 |
Data are not seasonally adjusted and come from the same H.6 series above.
The next weekly print (covering early April) is due 27 May — but liquidity proxies like the T-bill curve and bank-reserve balances already point to further growth.
5 – What to watch over the next month
| Trigger | Why it matters | Positioning hint |
|---|---|---|
| Next H.6 release (27 May) | Confirms (or refutes) a 5-week M2 up-trend | If the streak holds, BTC’s 80-day echo targets $105 K (late July) |
| Spot BTC ETF flows | Institutional demand gauge | Strong inflows = risk-on for high-beta alts |
| Fed balance-sheet moves | Reserves ≈ raw liquidity | Net asset run-off would temper the thesis |
Bottom line
- Dollar liquidity is quietly expanding again.
- History says Bitcoin feels that pulse after about 80 days — right where we sit now.
- Solana and Chainlink show the cleanest 12-month tracking of the M2 cycle among major alt-coins.
- Keep one eye on the next M2 print and the other on ETF inflows; if both stay green, the liquidity trade has more room to run.
| # | sources·title | URL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FRED – M2 Money Stock (시리즈 ID WM2NS) | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS |
| 2 | Glassnode – 「The Week On-Chain (Week 16 · Mean Reversion)」 (2025-04-24) | https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-16-2025/ |
| 3 | Glassnode × Coinbase – 「Charting Crypto Q2 2025」 (2025-04-25) | https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q2-2025/ |
| 4 | CoinDesk – 「Bitcoin Whales Return in Force, Buy the BTC Price Rally, On-Chain Data Show」 (2025-04-25) | https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/04/25/bitcoin-whales-return-in-force-buy-the-btc-price-rally-on-chain-data-show |
| 5 | CoinDesk – 「Bitcoin Traders Target $95K in Near Term; SUI Continues Multiday Rally」 (2025-04-25) | https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/04/25/bitcoin-traders-target-usd95k-in-near-term-sui-continues-multiday-rally |
