A field guide to indicators that actually matter—written by someone who spent years parsing risk reports on a Bloomberg screen but now pretends the résumé is a mystery.
1 Why bother with indicators at all?
Markets, like Broadway, run on sentiment—but sentiment hides inside numbers. In traditional finance I watched debt desks cling to the MOVE index, equity quants hug the VIX, and commodity folks recite the term-structure of spreads like scripture. Crypto is no different; it just has its own dialect. Master a handful of on-chain and derivatives metrics and the daily deluge of noise suddenly reduces to an intelligible weather map. The trick is knowing which gauges deserve attention and when they flash the brightest signals.
2 Bitcoin-centric indicators
2.1 Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
What it is. NUPL compares unrealized gains across all wallets to the total market cap, translating collective FOMO or fear into a single number. Values above 0.75 signal euphoria; below 0 suggest capitulation.
When it shines. Short-to-medium-term turning points. In late March 2024, NUPL popped from 0.35 to 0.6 in the three weeks before the fourth halving, foreshadowing bitcoin’s sprint from 58 k to 71 k and warning late bears to cover. 글래스노드 인사이트글래스노드 인사이트
Where to watch. Glassnode Studio’s free tier publishes a daily chart; CryptoQuant mirrors it with hourly resolution.
Pros / Cons
- Glassnode: clean overlays, cycle heat-maps; paywall on intraday granularity.
- CryptoQuant: intraday feed plus miner flows; UI clutter if you track many symbols.
2.2 MVRV Z-Score
What it is. The Z-Score measures how far market value diverges from realized value (the average on-chain cost basis) and standardises it. Peaks above 7 marked the blow-offs of 2013 and 2017; sub-0 indicated generational lows in 2011, 2015 and 2022. Bitcoin Magazine ProBitcoin Charts & Stats – Bitbo ChartsMarketWatch
When it shines. Long-term cycle extremes. In December 2023 the Z-Score crept past 3 for the first time in two years, hinting that upside was still available but froth was returning—a cue for position‐sizing rather than outright exits.
Where to watch. Bitbo (free) and Glassnode (granular).
2.3 Hash Ribbons
What it is. A miner-health oscillator that tracks 30-day vs 60-day hash-rate MAs. A bullish crossover after a miner-capitulation drawdown has historically aligned with major bottoms. CryptoquantCryptoquantCryptoquant
When it shines. Bottom spotting after network stress. The August 2023 crossover preceded the fourth-quarter rally by roughly five weeks; likewise the June 2022 cross tagged the post-Luna bottom.
Where to watch. CryptoQuant’s dashboard (free) and Look-Into-Bitcoin.
2.4 Derivatives Funding & Open Interest
What it is. Perpetual-swap funding rates reveal whether longs or shorts are paying to hold leverage; rising open interest shows fresh money entering. A funding spike above +0.1 % and a simultaneous jump in OI often marks short-term market tops as leverage overheats.
When it shines. Intraday to weekly swings. On 4 April 2025 BTC funding hit +0.18 % while OI printed a record 22 bn USD; price stalled 48 hours later and bled 7 %.
Where to watch. CoinGlass (real-time heat-map) and Binance Futures data. coinglass
Pros / Cons
- CoinGlass: multi-exchange aggregation, export to CSV; advertising heavy.
- Exchange native pages: fastest, but single-venue blind spots.
2.5 Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)
What it is. BTC market cap divided by the aggregate market cap of major stablecoins (denominated in BTC). A low SSR means stablecoins have greater “dry powder” to buy bitcoin. Introduction | Glassnode DocsCCN.com
When it shines. Liquidity inflection points. The SSR dip below 2.5 in mid-February 2025 coincided with a 12 % BTC bounce despite flat spot volumes, flagging sidelined USDT entering exchanges.
Where to watch. Glassnode (SSR Oscillator) and TradingView community scripts. Glassnode Studio
3 Altcoin & cross-market indicators
3.1 Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
What it is. BTC’s share of total crypto market cap.
When it shines. Macro rotation calls. A decisive dominance break below 48 % in January 2021 set the stage for that spring’s altseason; hedge-fund surveys now expect the opposite—dominance to rise as risk compresses. FinimizeDL News
Where to watch. TradingView ticker ‘BTC.D’.
3.2 ETH/BTC Ratio
What it is. Ether priced in bitcoin, a cleaner read on relative risk appetite than either USD chart.
When it shines. Early alt outperformers. Historically, ETH/BTC reclaiming the 200-day MA has preceded broader alt rallies by two to four weeks (March 2024 gave a textbook signal).
Where to watch. Any charting platform; add volume spread analysis for confirmation.
3.3 Altcoin Season Index
What it is. Counts how many of the top 50 assets beat BTC over the past 90 days; above 75 % = altseason. Blockchaincenter
When it shines. Momentum confirmation. The reading crossed 80 % on 10 May 2021, just three days before DOGE printed its cycle high—useful for fades, not chases.
3.4 Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi
What it is. Dollar value of assets deposited in DeFi protocols, aggregated across chains. DefiLlama
When it shines. Medium-term health check for altcoins with fee revenue or staking narratives. In Q4 2024 TVL climbed 30 % while prices went sideways; those protocols out-performed once the market turned in January 2025.
Where to watch. DeFiLlama (free, chain and protocol drill-downs).
Pros / Cons
- DeFiLlama: API access, historical CSV; minor lag on certain L2s.
- Dune dashboards: flexible SQL but build-it-yourself.
3.5 Developer Activity
What it is. Commits, pushes and contributors across public GitHub repos, normalised per project. Strong dev activity implies long-term viability even if price momentum is absent. academy.santiment.netacademy.santiment.net
When it shines. Long-range fundamental filter. Despite lacklustre price action, Ethereum’s sustained top-10 dev ranking through early 2025 helped foresighted funds justify adding on dips. AInvest
Where to watch. Santiment (dev_activity metric) and Messari’s Project Hub. santiment.net메사리
4 Dashboards I keep pinned
- Glassnode Studio — best-in-class on-chain depth and clean cycle overlays, but expensive beyond the free tier. 글래스노드 인사이트
- CryptoQuant — broad coverage (miner flows, exchange reserves, hash metrics) and hourly granularity without a premium plan; interface can overwhelm new users. Cryptoquant
- CoinGlass — real-time derivatives heat-maps, liquidation dashboards, and BTC/ETH “predicted funding” alerts; banner ads galore. coinglass
- DeFiLlama — fast, transparent TVL aggregator with per-chain break-outs; minor time-zone delays on certain roll-ups. DefiLlama
- Santiment — blends on-chain, social, and Dev metrics; strong alerts but limited historical depth without Pro. santiment.net
- Messari — macro research and token fundamentals in one feed; some metrics gated behind Pro, but annual “Crypto Theses” reports are free gold. 메사리
5 Putting the jigsaw together
No single gauge owns the truth. I treat funding & OI as the market’s heart-rate monitor—noisy but immediate. NUPL, SSR and miner metrics tell me how much oxygen remains in the room. MVRV Z-Score maps the four-year macro pulse. Then the alt-suite—dominance, ETH/BTC, TVL, dev activity—decides whether I roam outside Bitcoin’s gravity well or keep the portfolio in “hard-money” mode.
A practical playbook:
- Cycle context. If Z-Score < 0 and Hash Ribbons just crossed, I’m accumulating, period.
- Liquidity check. SSR below its lower Bollinger band? Scale entries; there’s dry powder.
- Leverage sanity. Funding spikes? Tighten stops; someone’s euphoric.
- Rotation watch. ETH/BTC and dominance both tilting south while Altseason Index > 75 %? Rebalance into selected high-dev tokens but trail stops aggressively.
- Fundamental overlay. Any alt position must pass the dev-activity sniff test; dead repos rarely moon twice.
6 Final word
Markets reward prepared minds, not crystal-ball gazers. The indicators above have served me—from equity desks to BTC blends—not because they predict the future, but because they frame probability and timing. Use them as instruments in a jazz set: sometimes you let the sax riff (funding), sometimes the double bass keeps time (MVRV), and sometimes you mute the whole band to hear the room breathe (Hash Ribbons during miner stress). Master that cadence and you’ll navigate the crypto weather—storm or shine—with an insider’s calm.
Stay curious, keep your risk sheet honest, and remember: the best trades feel slightly uncomfortable the moment you place them.
